Nikil's November 2026 South Bay STR forecast: 7 predictions, plus the September grade

I'll come back on December 1 and grade every call below.

There was no October forecast. It would have gone out with two thirds of the month already gone, so I skipped it, and this one grades September instead.

September, graded

One hit, six incompletes, and the hit doesn't count for much.

Zone 0 doesn't reach South Bay hosts. Hit, for the wrong reason. I predicted no host I work with in San Jose, Santa Clara or Sunnyvale would get a Zone 0 notice in September. None did. But the reason isn't the one I gave. I said the rules wouldn't reach the flat, urban South Bay. The truth is they never took effect anywhere: the Board of Forestry withdrew its filing from the Office of Administrative Law on September 8, and there is still no statewide rule in force. I've corrected the September post, where I'd written that the rules were expected to take effect at the end of the month.

The other six were about my own portfolio. Labor Day versus the following weekend, Dreamforce week, 30-plus day inquiries, Levi's weekend rates, September occupancy, and September ADR. I didn't pull the numbers, so all six are incomplete. I'm not going to reconstruct them now.

That's two months running with most of the scorecard blank, after I promised in September that every call would be a number I could read in under a minute. Good intentions, wrong mechanism.

What changes

Five of the seven calls below resolve against public sources: TSA's daily checkpoint counts, Airbnb's own help pages, the state's regulatory record, published rent data, and Airbnb's newsroom. You can check them yourself on December 1.

The other two are yes-or-no questions about my own book. Those I can answer in a word, and if I can't, you'll see that.

The seven calls for November

1. Thanksgiving Sunday clears three million again.

TSA's all-time single-day record is the Sunday after Thanksgiving last year, about 3.13 million people screened. This year that Sunday is November 29. The South Bay doesn't feel much of it, since this is a business-travel market that empties out for the holiday, but it's the clearest national read on whether holiday travel is holding.

The call: TSA screens at least 3 million travelers on Sunday, November 29.

2. Zone 0 stays unresolved.

The Board withdrew its filing on September 8 and hadn't refiled as of mid-October. A refiled package would get a new file number and still need OAL approval.

The call: no Zone 0 defensible space regulation is approved by the Office of Administrative Law by November 30.

3. Airbnb leaves the fee alone.

The single host-paid fee only finished rolling out in October, when European hosts made the switch. I don't expect Airbnb to touch the headline rate a few weeks later.

The call: on November 30, Airbnb's help center still lists 15.5% as the single service fee for most hosts.

4. National rents keep softening into winter.

Apartment List's October 28 report had the national median down 0.3% month over month, which is the normal late-fall pattern. It matters to hosts because a softening long-term market changes the STR versus lease math at the margin.

The call: Apartment List's next national report shows the median rent down month over month.

5. Airbnb ships baby gear on schedule.

The September 30 fall update said baby gear rentals would start in November in more than sixty U.S. cities. It's a guest-side service, but it's a clean test of whether Airbnb hits its own announced dates.

The call: by November 30, Airbnb has launched the baby gear rental service it announced for November.

6. Thanksgiving week is softer than the week before.

The holiday empties the corridor. Business travel stops on Wednesday and the family demand that fills December hasn't started.

The call (yes or no): my portfolio's occupancy for November 23 to 29 comes in below November 16 to 22.

7. The Raiders game prices itself.

The 49ers host Las Vegas at Levi's on November 8 and Seattle on November 29. The Vikings game on the 22nd is in Mexico City, so don't price that weekend like a home game.

The call (yes or no): at least one of my units within about fifteen minutes of Levi's books November 8 at or above my November median nightly rate.

What could change these

A late offshore wind event and a shutoff would mostly hit call 6, and some of the Levi's bookings. A storm on the East Coast can dent the TSA number even in a strong year. And if Airbnb reverses on fees, call 3 breaks, though I'd be surprised.

How to use this

Call 7 is the practical one this week. If your listing is near Levi's and you've priced November 22 like a home-game weekend, fix it, because that game isn't at Levi's.

The broader point is the one from last month: set your dynamic pricing floor before the winter, not during it. Thanksgiving week is the first real test of where that floor sits.

Want your holiday and winter calendar looked at before the bookings land? Get a free rental analysis. Or call me at (408) 813-8001.

Sources

• TSA checkpoint travel numbers — Transportation Security Administration
• Zone 0 Regulations Withdrawn from OAL Review: What Happens Next? — Wildfire Los Angeles
• What are Airbnb service fees? — Airbnb Help Center
• Apartment List National Rent Report — Apartment List
• Airbnb 2026 fall update — Airbnb Newsroom
• San Francisco 49ers 2026 schedule — San Francisco 49ers